The People Once Part With Power
Secretary of Defence force Lloyd Austin and Smoothen Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak stand with Shine and U.S. soldiers at the 33rd Air Base of the Polish Air Strength near Powidz during a visit final week. Janek Skarzynski/AFP via Getty Images hide explanation
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Janek Skarzynski/AFP via Getty Images
Secretary of Defence force Lloyd Austin and Polish Defence force Government minister Mariusz Blaszczak stand with Polish and U.Southward. soldiers at the 33rd Air Base of the Smoothen Air Force near Powidz during a visit final week.
Janek Skarzynski/AFP via Getty Images
As Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, some U.S. officials and analysts were already warning of a possible escalation of the conflict into a wider war.
The trigger: Article 5 of the N Atlantic Treaty.
As the fighting continues, we unpack what Commodity 5 is, what could invoke it, and the places and people to watch.
What is it?
Commodity five is a key pillar of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty — also known as the Washington Treaty — and is based on the principle of commonage defence force. It means that an set on on one member of NATO is deemed to be an assail on all.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but a number of its neighbors are.
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"There are xxx members of NATO, and nosotros take given all of them Commodity 5," said Mary Elise Sarotte, a professor of history at Johns Hopkins Academy and author of Not I Inch: America, Russian federation, and the Making of Mail-Common cold War Stalemate.
"And I don't think Americans understand this — that means we are obligated by treaty to basically defend them or go to war if they are attacked past Russia. We are obliged to care for an attack on Republic of estonia equally if it were an attack on Chicago by treaty."
"So, if there is an Article 5 incursion, this could very rapidly become non Ukraine'southward state of war, but our war."
The article states:
[NATO members] will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the apply of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic expanse.
Commodity 5 has been invoked in one case — in response to the 9/eleven attacks.
NATO members
Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech republic, Denmark, Estonia, French republic, Germany, Hellenic republic, Hungary, Iceland, Italian republic, Republic of latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, Northward Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Espana, Turkey, the Great britain, the United states
What could trigger this?
Russian federation has attacked Ukraine by country, ocean and air – but there remains a question over cyberattacks.
Less than 24 hours after the invasion began, U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Marker Warner, D-Va., warned that if Russian federation launched major cyberattacks on Ukraine, the harm could spill across the country's borders.
"When y'all launch cyberattacks, they don't recognize geographic boundaries. Some of that cyberattack could actually start shutting down systems in eastern Poland," he said.
"If you shut down Polish hospitals because they tin't get power to take care of their people, y'all're rapidly approaching what could be viewed every bit an Article 5 violation of NATO ... so we are in an uncharted territory."
Retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Foggo echoed this sentiment shortly afterwards the assault began, saying the U.S. was right to station troops in Poland.
"Nosotros're doing that because we exercise not desire the spillover effects to bear upon any of our NATO allies," he said. "If there is an interaction — a kinetic interaction, a fight — betwixt Russian troops and American troops it could trigger a earth war. Then, we need to reinforce our allies and make sure that this crisis is contained just to Ukraine and continue to back up Ukraine with lethal weapons."
The countries that could be afflicted
It's unclear whether a traditional armed conflict will go beyond Ukraine and Russia and trigger it again. But Sarotte said in that location were particular places to watch.
"We're going to see, I call up, authorities change and we're likewise going to see [Russian President Vladimir Putin] take control of more areas. I remember he'southward de facto already taken command of Republic of belarus," she said.
"And then there is a question about does he try to do something to the Baltics, which as well used to be role of the former Soviet Union. And that's really dangerous because the Baltics are in NATO."
Soldiers of an airborne brigade of the U.S. Army stand at the Adazi Military Base of the Latvian armed services in upon inflow Friday for their mission to strengthen the NATO presence in the region. Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images hibernate caption
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Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images
Soldiers of an airborne brigade of the U.S. Army stand up at the Adazi Military Base of the Latvian military machine in upon inflow Friday for their mission to strengthen the NATO presence in the region.
Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images
On Fri, NATO leaders issued a scathing condemnation of Russian federation after meeting to talk over the invasion of Ukraine, calling the assault "the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades."
The alliance said it was now taking "pregnant additional defensive deployments of forces" to its eastern flank and said it would give "political and practical support" to Ukraine.
In a statement on Thursday, information technology said: "Our commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is iron-clad. We stand united to protect and defend all allies."
Alejandra Marquez Janse and Ayesha Rascoe contributed to this report.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/26/1082964072/russia-ukraine-nato-article-5
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